22/05/2018 - Rapport de Gavin Smart & Miriam Noonan publié par Ore Catapult le 23 avril 2018.
With UK deployment of 100MW per year from 2021/22, and a realistic share of a growing global market, the tidal stream industry could generate a net cumulative benefit to the UK by 2030 of £1,400m, consisting of £1,600m GVA from the domestic market and £1,100m GVA from exports, offset by £1,300m of revenue support. This would also support a total of almost 4,000 jobs by 2030 and 14,500 by 2040.
Assuming a 10 year lag behind tidal stream, wave energy will also add a net positive contribution to the UK economy, worth a net cumulative benefit to the UK by 2040 of £4,000m, consisting of £1,500m GVA from the domestic market and £3,700m GVA from exports, offset by £1,200m of revenue support. This would also support a total of 8,100 jobs by 2040.
50-60% of the economic benefit in terms of both GVA and jobs is expected to be generated in coastal areas, many with a need for economic regeneration, adding an additional value over and above what has been quantified in this report.
The International Energy Agency’s 2012 Energy Technology Perspectives forecasts up to 337GW of marine capacity could be deployed across the world, with about 30% (101GW) coming from tidal sources and 70% (236GW) from wave by 2050. Key countries with high resource include Island communities such as Indonesia and the Philippines and those with remote, populated areas such as parts of Canada. The cost of generation in isolated areas can be up to £320 per MWh8 and there is a clear logic to utilising marine energy. This presents a significant opportunity for technology and project developers who can be first movers in these markets.
Several countries stand out as key players in the global marine energy market, both as potential allies and competitors and there is increasing evidence that UK companies or companies which have used the UK’s world-leading testing facilities are being attracted to these markets, with the resultant strengths currently in the UK, including know-how, technology, economic value and jobs, leaving the UK and being drawn overseas. France has intentions to hold a tidal energy tender round with attractive financial support. Canada has five developers with berths at The Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy (FORCE) in Nova Scotia, receiving between CAN$385 and CAN$575 per MWh (Approx £220 and £330 per MWh). Canada is also conducting a large push for clean technology, and has recently announced a CAN$2bn Clean Technology Fund, and CAN$22bn planned investment in green infrastructure, including renewables, smart grids, reducing diesel use in remote communities and electric vehicle infrastructure.